Data from AIMA and INE on immigration in Portugal are different

• 20 May, 26

The Minister of the Presidency stated that the figures on foreigners from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) “will always be different”, because they are based on different methodologies and universes.

“I swear to you that I don’t know the INE figures,” said António Leitão Amaro during a joint hearing of the parliamentary committees on Constitutional Affairs, Rights, Freedoms and Guarantees and State Reform and Local Government, saying he expects the total figures for the resident population in Portugal, including nationals and foreigners, to be published at the end of June.

“The figures that the INE will reveal will necessarily be different from the figures that AIMA revealed, and these differences will be particularly significant during that period” of greater influx of immigrants.

Data delays

The delays in the release of INE (National Institute of Statistics) data are related to changes in information collection methods, which, following European standards, will use less data from sampling and surveys and more from cross-referencing with other administrative information, such as data from schools, social security or taxes, the official explained.

Different data

In April of last year, AIMA (Association of Foreigners and Administrators of Portugal) published an interim report stating that, as of 31 December 2024, Portugal registered approximately 1.6 million foreign citizens with valid residence permits/authorisations, adding more than 1 million people who were not registered.

However, in June 2025, the INE set the resident population in Portugal on 31 December 2024 at approximately 10.75 million people, an increase of about 110,000 people compared to the resident population at the end of 2023, far below what is accounted for by AIMA only with regard to foreigners.

“Apparently, the INE did not incorporate administrative information held by AIMA, as it was not transmitted to the INE in a timely manner nor with adequate information detail,” says the request from the Liberal Initiative (IL), which prompted Leitão Amaro’s presence.

In the justification of the request, the liberal deputy Rui Rocha criticised the “blackout of INE data regarding the existing population in Portugal, which should have been published in 2024,” considering that a large increase in the numbers will have consequences for public policies.

“It is fundamental that we know what the existing population is in the Portuguese territory, because it is not indifferent to know how many people we have in Portugal, so that public policies on education, health and integration are aligned with well-measured data,” he said, stressing that these changes may require a review of the data.

“Even if GDP is growing somewhat in volume, the distribution of that GDP is not indifferent. We may be growing in volume, but falling behind in the distribution of wealth,” said Rui Rocha.

In response, Leitão Amaro said the INE (National Institute of Statistics) did not update the numbers because “there was no reliability” of the data, and it was necessary to incorporate the AIMA update into the database.

Cross-referenced data

The AIMA data sent to the INE will be cross-referenced with other administrative data from public services, and then the entries for each foreigner will be entered in the corresponding year, updating previous statistical series.

It will be necessary to “impute microdata for the time that is behind,” with verification of residence in Portugal for at least 12 months.

The AIMA “produces a statistic of valid residency permits” in Portugal, which may include people who have a permit but do not reside in the country or have resided there for less than 12 months.

The “realities are different, and the numbers will always be different,” the Minister summarised.

Cre: The Portugal News